Garde-corps sûrs pour les ajustements exploitatifs avec de petits échantillons

Short Answer

Do not make large exploit shifts without minimum sample confidence. Start with small deltas and predefined rollback rules.

Guardrails

1. Set minimum relevant sample size, e.g., 100-200.
2. Shift frequencies by 5% to 15% first, not 30%.
3. Use review windows (for example, 500 hands).
4. Revert to baseline when evidence weakens.

Common risk

A few agreeing outcomes can look like strong evidence but are often noise under variance.

Execution checklist

Track baseline, adjusted rule, start date, sample count, and rollback threshold. Change one variable at a time.

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