Statistics in Poker: Variance & Confidence

Poker results combine skill and luck. Statistical thinking helps you distinguish between the two and make better decisions under uncertainty.

Understanding Variance

**Variance**: The statistical measure of how far results spread from the expected value. High-variance games produce bigger swings.

**Standard Deviation**: For NLHE cash games, typical std dev is 80-120 bb/100 hands. A 5 bb/100 winner can easily lose over 10k+ hands.

**Win rate confidence**: The more hands you play, the more confident you can be that your results reflect your true skill level.

After 10k hands: a 5 bb/100 winner's true win rate is ±8 bb/100 (could be -3 to +13)

After 50k hands: ±3.5 bb/100

After 100k hands: ±2.5 bb/100 — still a meaningfully wide range

You need roughly 200k+ hands to reasonably estimate your true win rate

**All-in EV**: Your expected value when all-in, removing luck from the equation. Shows whether you are getting it in good.

**Red line (non-showdown)**: Winnings without showdown. A strong red line indicates good aggression and bluffing.

**Blue line (showdown)**: Winnings at showdown. A strong blue line indicates good hand selection and value betting.

**BB/100**: Big blinds won per 100 hands — the standard win rate metric for cash games.

Do not obsess over daily results — variance dominates short-term outcomes

Judge decisions, not outcomes — a correct play that loses is still correct

Use statistical tracking to identify real leaks, not just bad luck

Set volume-based goals (hands played), not profit-based goals

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