Poker Probability Basics: Combos & Frequency

Understanding probability is fundamental to making profitable poker decisions. This lesson covers the essential math you need at the table.

Combinations (Combos)

A "combo" is one specific way to hold a hand. There are:

**16 combos of unpaired hands**: 4 suited + 12 offsuit (e.g., AK has 4 suited and 12 offsuit combos)

**6 combos of pocket pairs**: For each rank, exactly 6 combinations exist (e.g., 6 ways to hold AA)

**4 combos of suited hands**: Each suited hand has exactly 4 suit combinations

Basic Frequency Concepts

**Pot Odds**: The ratio of the current pot size to the cost of a contemplated call. If the pot is $100 and opponent bets $50, you are getting 3:1 on a call.

**Required Equity**: Pot odds converted to a percentage. Facing a half-pot bet, you need 25% equity to call profitably.

**Break-Even Percentage**: The minimum equity needed for a call to be profitable = call amount / (pot + bet + call).

Counting Outs

**Outs** are cards that improve your hand to the likely winner. With a flush draw on the flop, you have 9 outs (13 suited cards minus the 4 you can see).

**Rule of 2 and 4**: On the flop, multiply outs by 4 for approximate turn+river equity. On the turn, multiply by 2 for river equity.

A flush draw (9 outs) on the flop has roughly 36% equity. On the turn, it drops to ~18%.

Practical Application

Use combo counting to estimate how often opponents have certain hands. If a tight player opens from UTG, they might hold ~80 combos of value hands out of ~1,326 possible starting hands (~6%). This informs your 3-bet and calling decisions.